South Korean Economy Expected to Grow 3.4% This Year

Nine global investment banks estimated South Korea’s real GDP growth rate for this year at an average of 3.4 percent at the end of last year, up 0.01 percentage point from the previous month.

Credit Suisse raised its estimate from 2.9 percent to 3.6 percent and HSBC raised its estimate from 2.2 percent to 2.7 percent. Barclays (3.2 percent), BoA-ML (3.4 percent), Citi (3 percent), Goldman Sachs (3.6 percent), JP Morgan (3.5 percent), Nomura (3.6 percent) and UBS (4.1 percent) did not change their estimates.

When it comes to the South Korean economic growth rate for 2020, their average estimate is negative 1.1 percent. Their average estimate for 2022 is 2.8 percent. Specifically, those of UBS, JP Morgan and Citi are 3.8 percent, 3.5 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively. The respective figures of Barclays, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Nomura are 2.7 percent, 2.5 percent, 2 percent and 2 percent and BoA-ML and Credit Suisse are yet to announce theirs.

The nine investment banks’ global economic growth forecast for this year is being maintained at an average of 5.7 percent. The average for 2020 was recently adjusted from negative 3.8 percent to negative 3.7 percent and that for 2022 is 4.2 percent. According to the banks, the U.S., eurozone, Chinese and Japanese economies will grow 4.4 percent, 4.8 percent, 8.4 percent and 3 percent this year, respectively.