Japan has committed to developing and exporting a next-generation fighter jet by 2035 in collaboration with the United Kingdom and Italy.
On March 26, Japan decided to relax the “Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology” during a Cabinet meeting, thereby approving the export of a 6th generation advanced fighter jet currently under development. Although this decision contradicts the pacifist principles enshrined in Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, it was anticipated.
Japan announced in 2022 its plan to jointly develop a 6th generation fighter jet with the U.K. and Italy by 2035. According to reports from the Mainichi Shimbun and others, the Japanese government has claimed that the project was not initially intended for export. However, in the year the three countries agreed to the development, there was an understanding that exports would not occur. Yet, the U.K. and Italy later requested Japan to consider exports to reduce development costs.
The next-generation fighter jet being developed in this tri-nation project will replace the Mitsubishi F-2, developed with the United States, and the Eurofighter Typhoon, a collaborative effort by Germany, the U.K., Italy, and Spain.
Japan, having defense equipment and technology transfer agreements with 15 countries including the United States, France, Germany, Australia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), can export to these nations. South Korea has not signed such an agreement with Japan.
Japan’s path to weapons export was opened under the Abe administration in 2014. In 1967, former Prime Minister Eisaku Sato announced the “Three Principles on Arms Exports” in the Diet, prohibiting arms exports to communist bloc countries, countries subject to U.N. arms embargoes, and countries involved in or likely to be involved in international conflicts.
However, in 2014, the Abe administration renamed these to the “Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology,” allowing for arms sales if they contribute to peace and Japan’s security or if there is prior consent from the Japanese government.
Preparations for diluting the pacifist constitution have been made systematically. The Japanese Constitution’s Article 9, renouncing war and the right to engage in combat, is known as the Peace Constitution. Yet, in 2015, Japan obtained the right to collective self-defense through defense cooperation guidelines with the United States. In 2022, Japan included the capability for a “counterattack” in its three security documents: the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Buildup Plan, enabling it to strike enemy bases overseas.
The fighter jet market was already a US$50 billion industry per year during the Cold War in the 1980s. The market size has shrunk since the mid-1990s, remaining around US$40 billion in recent years. With the start of a new Cold War between the United States and Japan against China and Russia, the fighter jet market is expected to grow significantly each year.
Aerodynamic Advisory, a U.S. consulting firm, forecasts the global fighter jet market to grow to US$47.34 billion this year and US$56.83 billion by 2029, with an annual growth rate of 3.7% over the next five years. The United States holds the highest market share at 78.9%.