Are South Korea-Russia Relations Going to Hell in a Handcart?

The relationship between South Korea and Russia is reaching a desperate situation while the two countries celebrate the 34th anniversary of diplomatic relations this year.

Earlier this year, an unusual incident occurred when a South Korean missionary, who was engaged in aid and missionary activities in Vladivostok, Russia, was arrested and detained on charges of espionage. Although Russian state media reported it as a case of espionage involving the transfer of top-secret information to a foreign country, the situation seems deeply connected to the rapidly deteriorating relations between two countries.

Russian media have reported that the missionary was arrested earlier this year, which coincides with South Korea’s tightening of export controls against Russia. On Dec. 26, the Korean government announced the revision of the “33rd Notice on the Export and Import of Strategic Materials,” adding 682 items to the list requiring approval for export in coordination with the U.S.-led export controls against Russia.

Furthermore, such an unprecedented action by Russia is speculated to be in response to South Korea’s moves to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, which Russia considers a “red line” in South Korea-Russia relations. The criticism from Russia became noticeably harsher after Defense Minister Shin Won-sik mentioned military support for Ukraine. Minister Shin, in a media interview on Jan. 26, stated that he personally believes “full support for Ukraine is desirable.” He also mentioned that North Korea has supplied millions of artillery shells to Russia, which has in turn provided food and technology aid to North Korea. In response, Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, warned, “We would like to warn the South Korean government against rash actions that could completely destroy once-friendly relations with Russia.”

Earlier, Yuri Kim, deputy assistant secretary of state at the U.S. Department of State, spoke at an ICAS online symposium, stating, “South Korea is politically supporting Ukraine while also sending military support, and we hope to see more military supplies sent to Ukraine.” According to a Washington Post report in December last year, the U.S. requested negotiations to the South Korean government, stating that 330,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery shells could be supplied within 41 days with South Korea’s consent. The South Korean government reportedly started supplying shells to the U.S. in an indirect arrangement from early this year. The Washington Post did not specify the number of shells supplied but mentioned that “South Korea has supplied more shells than the whole of Europe.”

Amidst this, a high-level Russian official visited Seoul to explore the possibility of improving relations between South Korea and Russia, but unexpected things happened and led to a public spat between the two governments, even to both countries criticizing each other’s leaders.

On March 2, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko met with high-ranking officials from the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including First Vice Minister Kim Hong-kyun and Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Kim Gunn, on his first visit to South Korea under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. However, during his stay, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova directly criticized President Yoon Suk-yeol for his recent remarks on North Korea, calling his statement that North Korea is the only country to legalize preemptive nuclear strikes “blatantly biased.”

In response, the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs rebuked, “The remarks by a foreign ministry spokesperson are rudely low, ignorant, and biased.” The Ministry also targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin directly, stating, “The Russian leader’s designation of the invasion of Ukraine, a clear violation of international law, as a special military operation is nothing but a blatant attempt to mislead the international community.”

The mutual public criticism of each other's leaders by these governments is unprecedented in the more than 30 years of diplomatic history between South Korea and Russia, especially with the visit of the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister aiming to improve South Korea-Russia relations.

Regarding Russia’s confusing and contradictory actions, various interpretations have emerged. Some speculate that the conflicts between the two countries, including South Korea’s participation in sanctions against Russia led by the U.S. and the West, have classified South Korea as an “unfriendly country” to Russia. The Camp David declaration between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan in August of last year significantly strengthened their security cooperation to almost a military alliance level, threatening Russia that turned to strengthen military cooperation with North Korea. In addition, President Yoon’s visit to Ukraine in July last year, where he expressed a strong solidarity with Ukraine, and the recent remark of direct military support for Ukraine by Defense Minister Shin are believed to have contributed to the tensions.

In this context, Vladimir Putin’s comments seeming to recognize North Korea’s nuclear possessions have attracted attention. In an interview with Russian media just before the Russian presidential election, Putin responded to a question about providing a nuclear umbrella to North Korea and deploying 2 million North Korean troops to Ukraine, saying, “North Korea has its own nuclear umbrella,” implying Russia’s recognition of North Korea’s nuclear power status.

Amid these developments, remarks by Mira Rapp-Hooper, senior director for Asia and Oceania at the U.S. National Security Council, and Jung Pak, senior official for North Korea at the U.S. Department of State, have also stirred controversy in North Korean nuclear negotiations on “intermediate measures”. They argued for intermediate measures for stability on the Korean Peninsula before achieving the ultimate goal of denuclearization, reviving the “step-by-step denuclearization” logic often proposed by the U.S. government, especially under Democratic administrations, when facing obstacles in North Korean nuclear negotiations.

Some foreign media report that South Korea is walking a tightrope between the U.S.’ calls for military support for Ukraine and Russia’s warnings of consequences, highlighting the need for South Korea to be cautious to avoid escalating tensions with Russia while pursuing an alliance with the U.S. against the North Korean nuclear threat. In the context that Putin solidified his power in Russia by winning the Russian presidential election in March, the South Korean government with a minority ruling party is scheduled to call a general election in April against the opposition party favorable to totalitarian states including North Korea, while the U.S. presidential election will be held in November this year with participation of the former President Trump, who is also friendly to Russia. Amid such an uncertain political environment home and abroad, the direction of South Korea’s future foreign policy facing incompatible challenges is attracting keen interest.