Samjong KPMG (KPMG Korea) predicts that the semiconductor and smartphone markets will rebound in 2024 thanks to the full-scale commercialization of artificial intelligence (AI) technology. On the other hand, the automobile, shipping, construction, and distribution industries are likely to show sluggish growth next year due to the base effects of their strong growth in 2023 and various regulations.
Samjong KPMG made the forecast on Dec. 11 in a report on an outlook for 23 major industries in Korea for 2024. Since 2020, the accounting firm has been releasing an annual Korean industry outlook report for the first time in the accounting industry.
The report expected that 11 industries -- semiconductors, mobile phones, shipbuilding, chemicals, energy, biotechnology, aviation, media, food, cosmetics, and insurance – will launch new products and services and expand their markets while securing new growth drivers in 2024. Companies in these industries will increase demand and boost profitability by actively pursuing overseas markets, according to the report.
In the semiconductor industry, in particular, the accounting firm said that the global market will grow 13.1 percent next year, making up for a 9.4 percent decline in 2023. Samjong KPMG advised that as the memory semiconductor market in particular is expected to grow by 44.8 percent next year, companies should focus on new business areas such as AI semiconductors to establish investment strategies. In fact, the growth cycle of the semiconductor industry could return as the new year of 2024 is expected to become the first year of AI technology commercialization.
The smartphone market is expected to grow by 3.8 percent in 2024, driven by the launch of new models with on-device AI capabilities. Unlike the market for high-end products such as those powered by AI, the foldable smartphone market will face fiercer competition with the participation of Chinese mid- and low-end products.
The energy sector is also expected to recover, with Korea’s energy demand rising 2.6 percent in the new year, according to Samjong KPMG. Increased demand from the gas power sector and strong government policies on renewable and nuclear energy will drive total energy consumption growth while coal demand is expected to shrink.
The non-life insurance industry is also expected to improve due to the full implementation of the new International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS17), which will lead to a decline in loss ratios and adjustments to loss ratios. However, Samjong KPMG believes that lower auto insurance premiums will put a brake on profit growth, and suggests that the non-life insurance industry should not miss financial soundness management including the management of loan delinquencies, in preparation for increased economic volatility. New business development measures such as pet insurance and digital healthcare should also be considered when investing in the non-life insurance sector.
On the other hand, Samjong KPMG forecast that 12 industries -- displays, shipping, automobiles, steel, construction, gaming, retail, fashion, banking, securities, credit cards, and life insurance –- auger badly in 2024. In particular, it strongly asserted very negative outlooks on the shipping, construction, securities, and card sectors for 2024, making it difficult to expand anticipation for earnings and stock prices in those industries.
Samjong KPMG was concerned that automobile companies such as Hyundai Motor and Kia, which posted their highest earnings in 2023, may suffer a slowdown in their business growth next year. It also cited the recent trend of electric vehicle price cuts as a negative factor. It predicted that global auto sales and production will grow 4.2 percent and 2.2 percent from 2023. “It is time for Korean carmakers to strengthen their EV strategies to beat China’s automakers in a price war and outsmart Tesla’s smart cars,” Samjong KPMG said in the report.
Samjong KPMG forecast that the display industry, which benefited from a short-term increase in demand for information technology devices such as liquid crystal displays and organic light-emitting diode displays during the COVID-19 pandemic, will also be faced with challenging market conditions in 2024. According to Samjong KPMG’s analysis, the success of the display industry will hinge on whether or not it will be able to preemptively establish strategies for high-value-added product lines such as automotive displays and augmented reality devices.
“Next year, the Korean industry will encounter limited growth in the global economy and an industrial structure reorganization through the spread of AI,” said an official at Samjong KPMG.