The top 13 countries in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions account for 70 percent of all GHG emissions. As global GHG emissions continue to rise, it will be difficult to reach the 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target, many experts expect.
The Federation of Korean Industries (FKI) said on Oct. 24 that the gap is very wide between 2030 projections based on historical emissions data from major greenhouse gas emitters and the 2030 NDC targets set by countries.
In 2021, global GHG emissions reached a record high of 48.6 Gt. The numbers have been swelling steadily since 1990 at an average annual rate of 1.39 percent. Global GHG emissions only plummeted during the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.
About 70 percent of global GHG emissions come from the top 13 major emitters. China is the largest emitter, followed by the United States, India, and Russia. Combined, these four countries account for more than 50 percent of all GHG emissions, meaning that the success of the global climate change response will depend on whether or not the top four emitters will meet their 2030 NDC targets.
The FKI calculated the reduction gap rates, which show differences between GHG reduction targets and projections, for all G20 countries, and found that the average was 25.0 percent. The smallest rate belonged to Italy with 3.0 percent and Canada had the largest rate with 37.3 percent.
Korea was above the average at 34.2 percent. The reason why Korea’s mitigation gap rate is relatively high compared to other countries is the overly challenging 2030 NDC targets compared to realistic GHG emission projections made by taking into account various internal and external variables such as future economic growth rates, industrial structure, and mitigation conditions, the FKI analyzed.
“Contrary to initial optimistic expectations and declarations, it has become highly uncertain whether GHG reductions will be implemented by many countries as planned,” said Chu Kwang-ho, head of the Economic and Industrial Division of the FKI. “Realistically, it is necessary to prepare climate change adaptation strategies in earnest along with GHG reduction efforts to prepare for the era of extreme weather.”