Outperform Toyota, Volkswagen
Hyundai Motor Group will become the world's No. 1 automaker in 2026 with sales standing at 9.2 million vehicles, according to a new forecast. Hyundai Motor Group sold 6.85 million vehicles globally in 2022, ranking third in sales behind Japan's Toyota and Germany's Volkswagen.
In a report titled “The Year of 2026 Will See New Global No. 1 Carmaker,” Samsung Securities on April 20 maintained its “buy” investment opinion on Hyundai Motor’s stocks and raised its target price to 270,000 won from 250,000 won. Kia also raised its price target to 120,000 won from 110,000 won. “Hyundai Motor Group is expected to become the No. 1 global player with sales of 9.2 million units in 2026, up from 7.5 million units in 2023,” said Lim Eun-young, a researcher at Samsung Securities. “While Toyota and Volkswagen will go through a crisis in China, Hyundai-Kia will break through the crisis with sales in the United States and India.”
Toyota and Volkswagen are expected to see declines in sales in China as Hyundai Motor Group did between 2016 and 2022. After selling 1.8 million vehicles in China in 2016, Hyundai Motor Group’s sales dropped by a fifth to 380,000 units in 2022 as it lost out to Chinese automakers. Electric vehicles (EVs) account for over 30 percent of China’s auto market with only Tesla remaining competitive among foreign players.
Hyundai Motor Group, which has been developing EVs since 2018 under its “first mover” strategy, is expected to turn a profit in the sector this year. “EVs and internal combustion vehicles are sharing costs at Hyundai Motor Group,” Lim said. “The more profitable Hyundai Motor’s internal combustion vehicles become, the faster it will turn a profit in the electric vehicle business.”
The first half of the year will see Hyundai’s acquisition of General Motors’ India plant and an outline of its battery procurement structure for the U.S. plant. “Hyundai’s acquisition of GM’s India plant in the first half of this year will be followed by renovations in the second half of this year, and the plant is expected to be operational by 2024,” Lim said, adding that Hyundai’s capacity in India will climb from 300,000 units this year to 500,000 units in 2025. In the United States, its Alabama and Georgia factories will roll out electric vehicles starting from 2025. Samsung Securities expects its sales to increase by about 1 million units by 2026 -- 500,000 units in India and 500,000 units in the United States -- thanks to the expansion of its factories in those countries.