Construction
The author is an analyst of NH Investment & Securities. He can be reached at minjae.lee@nhqv.com -- Ed.
As in February, the March pre-sale market showed variation in sales interest by site. Despite a difficult market environment, pre-sales proved relatively solid for sites with a high portion of association members and low sales prices. Over March~April, unsold units are expected to climb by more than 20,000 per month.
Pre-sales sites and subscription results for March
In March, nationwide pre-sale volume totaled 12,483 units (-0.7mn units y-y, +0.4mn units m-m). Pre-sales were conducted for a total of 15 projects, with notable results dividing as: Gyeonggi Pyeongtaek Godeok Xi Centro (GS E&C, 569 units, 45.33:1), Seoul Hwigyeong Xi Disentia (GS E&C, 1,806 units, 37.34:1), Gwangju Wimark Maruk Park (Hoban Construction, 917 units, 8.18:1), and Incheon Geomdan New Town Geumgang Penterium 3rd Central Park (Geumgang House, 1,049 units, 2.12:1). For sites boasting competitiveness in location and sales price, competition proved healthy.
On the other hand, sites such as Busan Doosan We’ve the Zenith Ocean City (Doosan E&C, 3,048 units, 0.53:1) and Gyeonggi-do Pyeongtaek Hwayang Seohee Star Hills Central Park (Seohee Construction, 1,554 units, 0.15:1) saw limited subscription competition.
As of March, those in the first and second eligible subscriber groups totaled 26,823 (-88% y-y, +9% m-m) nationwide, with the subscription rate arriving at 2.42:1. However, 8 out of 15 pre-sale sites reported a subscription ratio of less than 1:1, among the first eligible group for pre-sales. With 2,185 unsubscribed units in March, accumulated unsold units are now estimated to exceed 78,000. For reference, the slight increase in unsold units in February was due to the time difference (recruitment announcement date vs subscription results) in counting statistics. Amid a challenging real estate market, the portion of association members has risen since 2H22, with the figure for March amounting to 33%. Undersubscription was evenly reported across all regions.
Weekly apartment sales price index and jeonse price index
Over Mar 28~Apr 3, the apartment sales price index fell 0.23% nationwide. By region, the index slipped 0.13% in Seoul, 0.25% in Seoul’s neighboring cities, 0.28% in five regional metropolitan cities, and 0.15% in eight provinces. The apartment jeonse (lump sum rental deposit) price index dwindled 0.25%, with the pace of decrease slowing from the previous week’s 0.29%. By region, the index shrank 0.24% in Seoul, 0.29% in Seoul’s neighboring cities, 0.33% in five regional metropolitan cities, and 0.14% in eight provinces.