Progressive Agreement
The United Kingdom is expected to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on March 31. With China, Taiwan, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Uruguay, and other countries expected to join it, the members are trying to determine how to negotiate with China and Taiwan.
The 11 members of the CPTPP will hold a ministerial meeting online on March 31 to formally decide whether the United Kingdom will join. It applied to join the partnership in February 2021 and is likely to become a member. The 11 current members are Japan, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.
With the United Kingdom added, the combined GDP of the partnership will increase from US$11.7 trillion to US$14.8 trillion and its ratio to the global GDP will increase from 12 percent to 15 percent. The regional trade will increase from US$6.6 trillion to US$7.8 trillion and the population in the bloc will increase from 510 million to 580 million.
Due to diplomatic reasons, the members are likely to choose between China and Taiwan instead of accepting both. In this case, China is likely to be preferred considering economic scales, market access effects, etc.
However, the decision is not easy given the possibility of the United States’ membership and its rivalry with China. In addition, there are concerns that China will not comply with the strict free trade standards to be set by the CPTPP. Government subsidies are still opaque in China and companies entering the Chinese market are still told to transfer technology.