Slow Recovery
The machinery industry (excluding shipbuilding) is expected to enjoy the slow recovery of production and export in 2015, thanks to the continuing improvement in economic performance of leading economic powers such as the United States and Europe. Nevertheless, there remain several risk factors such as intensifying competition in overseas markets due to the protraction of the weak yen and holding back of investment of oil producing countries.
A research group to study machinery industry trends estimated as such on Dec. 18 in their report “Recent Trends and 2015 Prospect of Machinery Industry,” diagnosing that though the machinery industry in 2015 will see slight improvements compared to the previous year, there still exist a lot of obstacles that could hinder the recovery.
The report expects that the general flow will be favorable in exports to leading economic powers, centering on the United States along with Europe, Japan, etc. Nevertheless, the prolonged weakness of the yen could cause harder competition against Japanese products in overseas markets. The recent plummeting of oil prices could possibly lead to a reduction in investments from oil producing countries in the Middle East.
With all these potential risk factors put into consideration, machinery exports next year are likely to increase only slightly. Items such as bearings, gas combustors, and electric devices are expected to show good progress in overseas sales.
Exports of items such as machinery tools and construction & mining equipment, on the other hand, are to maintain the same level of the previous year. The production as well is likely to stay on the current spot in most categories.
The five major machinery sectors are expected to reach the slightly increased sum of US$425.0 billion (4.8 percent) in production, US$194.4 billion (5.2 percent) in exports, US$107.7 billion (9.6 percent) in imports, and US$86.6 billion of surplus in the trade balance.