Micron Develops World's First 1αnm DRAM
The author is an analyst of NH Investment & Securities. He can be reached at hwdoh@nhqv.com. -- Ed.
Recently, Micron’s technological achievements have surpassed those of domestic memory players. In terms of relative return in the semiconductor sector, Micron is expected to lead going forward. As the technology gap between companies has narrowed, memory investment is set to remain conservative going forward. This is positive for memory supply/demand.
Micron develops world's first 1αnm DRAM
Micron’s recent technological achievements are outstanding. In Jan 2021, the firm completed development of the world’s first 1αnm DRAM. It also unveiled the world’s first 176-layer 3D NAND in Nov 2020. Such achievements mark a stark contrast from the past, when Micron used to rank second or third in both the DRAM and NAND markets. This is contrary to the recent decline in the R&D capabilities of domestic memory semiconductor players, which used to boast the best technology. In terms of relative return within the sector, Micron is expected to lead in the future. The company’s technical achievements have been made possible for the following reasons:
1) Micron sets its technology direction with little regard for developments at competitors. As it does not use EUV equipment for 1αnm, it should be relatively easy for the firm to develop and mass produce products. The company plans to use existing ArF-Immersion exposure equipment rather than EUV equipment for 1βnm.
2) Its production fabs and development organizations scattered across Japan, Taiwan, and the US have shown synergies recently. Elaborate fab operations across countries, tactful tech migration to different processes by fab, and flexible product mix changes are contributing to profitability.
3) The company’s strategies of responding to short-term rather than long-term supply-demand conditions, converting technology once a year without considering of mass production yield, and developing niche market products if they are judged to be meaningful for R&D have had positive effects.
4) Micron’s future preparations are also a threat to competitors. In particular, we note that, compared to domestic players, Micron possesses a number of technological assets related to next-generation DRAM such as 2T0C.
Narrowing tech gap positive for memory supply/demand
Micron’s prominence is paradoxically positive for global memory supply/ demand. As the technology gap has narrowed, it has become more difficult for leading companies to easily implement aggressive investment strategies. The strategy of leading players in the past, which was represented as a game of chicken, was based on a technology gap of more than a year. In the future, conservative DRAM and NAND investment strategies are likely to be maintained. Based on this, memory supply/demand should remain solid.