Boost from Low Oil Prices Short-lived
The author is an analyst of Shinhan Investment Corp. He can be reached at jinmyung.lee93@shinhan.com. -- Ed.
1Q20 operating loss of KRW86bn (negative swing QoQ) far short of consensus
Lotte Chemical posted an operating loss of KRW86bn (negative swing QoQ) for 1Q20, far steeper than the consensus estimate of KRW41.2bn. All negatives were reflected in earnings, including inventory valuation losses (KRW61.5bn), regular maintenance-related losses (KRW13bn), and negative lagging effect (KRW173.6bn). By division, operating loss from olefins stood at KRW11.7bn (negative swing YoY), aromatics KRW40.7bn (RR QoQ), and Lotte Chemical Titan KRW69.5bn (RR QoQ). The advanced materials division recorded an operating profit of KRW41bn (+13% QoQ) and Lotte Chemical USA KRW13.9bn (-57% QoQ). Losses from olefins, aromatics and Lotte Chemical Titan were attributable to an explosion at Lotte Chemical’s Daesan NCC, input of high-cost naphtha, and weak demand. With the COVID-19 pandemic in full force from March, the advanced materials division was able to deliver relatively decent earnings. Lotte Chemical USA’s earnings were weighed down by one-off costs and MEG price declines.
2Q20 operating profit of KRW101bn (positive swing QoQ) on cost reduction
Lotte Chemical should be able to swing to an operating profit of KRW101bn (+KRW187bn QoQ) in 2Q thanks to the input of low-cost naphtha and removal of one-off costs. Naphtha prices are expected to decline 48% QoQ. PE and PP spreads are estimated to rise 10% and 14% QoQ, respectively. Operating profit from olefin operations will likely amount to KRW94.9bn (positive swing, +KRW106.6bn QoQ) and Lotte Chemical Titan KRW15.1bn (positive swing, +KRW84.6bn QoQ). Advanced materials operating profit is projected to reach KRW20.3bn (-51% QoQ) with major clients in the US and Europe hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Lotte Chemical USA is forecast to post operating profit margin of 9.9% (-2.8%p QoQ) on rising ethane prices (C) and falling MEG prices (P).
Retain BUY and raise target price by 9% to KRW230,000
We raise our target price for Lotte Chemical to KRW230,000 based on the upward revision of our earnings forecasts. Earnings are expected to grow markedly in 2Q due to low oil prices. But a meaningful improvement in chemical market conditions is unlikely as the boost from low oil prices should be short-lived and global oversupply persists. Nevertheless, we find shares attractive at current price levels (PBR of 0.5x based on 2020F BPS), considering stronger profit fundamentals compared to past down-cycles and net cash holdings.