Research institutes and investment banks said in a recent Bloomberg survey that the possibility of a recession to start within 12 months is 33 percent in the case of the South Korean economy.
In addition, Nomura Securities estimated South Korea’s Q1 economic growth rate at negative 3.7 percent and Oxford Economics and Barclays estimated it at negative 1.4 percent and negative 1.3 percent, respectively.
Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki is admitting the possibility of a recession as well. He remarked on March 20 that the repercussions of the spread of the coronavirus would include a negative economic growth in the first quarter of this year. Likewise, the Bank of Korea mentioned that the Q1 economic growth rate would be less than that of the first quarter of 2019, negative 0.4 percent.
According to business research firm IHS, South Korea’s quarter-on-quarter economic growth rate is estimated at negative 0.9 percent and negative 0.7 percent in the first and second quarters of this year, respectively. International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings’ estimates are negative 0.6 percent and negative 0.9 percent.
U.K.-based consultancy Capital Economics adjusted its 2020 GDP growth forecast for South Korea from 1 percent to negative 1 percent on March 19.