The author is an analyst of NH Investment & Securities. He can be reached at email@example.com. -- Ed.
Several e-pickup trucks are soon to enter the market. Noting that the average rechargeable battery capacity for e-pickup trucks is expected to surpass at least 100 kWh, we believe that their arrival will prove favorable for rechargeable battery demand. In particular, Samsung SDI and LG Chem stand to benefit from e-pickup truck market expansion.
Electric pickup trucks deserving attention
We draw attention to the pickup truck market, which is seeing the entry of a variety of electric car companies. Many players have already announced plans to produce electric pickup (e-pickup) trucks from 2021, including Tesla (Cybertruck), Rivian (R1T), and GM (Hummer). In addition, startup electric car manufacturers such as Atlis and Bollinger are also unveiling 2021 production plans. We believe the launches of such e-pickup trucks from 2021 will strengthen EV market dynamics.
At this point, it is difficult to estimate the size of the e-pickup truck market. However, considering the pre-booking volumes disclosed by some players, we believe that demand is high. Tesla’s Cybertruck pre-booking numbers show rapid growth from 146k units on Nov 24 to 250k units on Nov 27. And, some have recently estimated Cybertruck pre-booking volume of 535k units by Feb 19. For reference, the Market Research Institute predicts that the electric truck market (includes e-pickup trucks) will grow from 0.307 mn units in 2021 to 1.738 mn units in 2025.
Arrival of e-pickup trucks favorable for rechargeable battery demand
We estimate the average rechargeable battery load in e-pickup trucks for 2021 at 145 kWh, a figure that exceeds the average load of 50 kWh for electric passenger vehicles. As electric trucks look to be an attractive demand driver, the growth of the e-pickup truck market should prove favorable for the rechargeable battery industry. Given both the Market Research Institute’s forecast of rising electric truck shipments and rechargeable battery load growth trends, the rechargeable battery market for electric trucks is projected to expand from 45 GWh in 2021 to 309 GWh in 2025.
According to reports, Samsung SDI is to supply rechargeable batteries for the Rivian R1T, and LG Chem is to produce rechargeable batteries for GM’s Hummer at the LG-GM joint plant, with both firms expected to benefit. For reference, Samsung SDI’s 2021 sales to Rivian are estimated at W216bn and related OP at W10.8bn (assuming 10k unit shipments and 135 kWh per unit).