The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in its report released on April 17 that a no-deal Brexit is likely to have a negative trade impact on the European Union, Turkey, South Korea, Pakistan, Norway, Iceland, Cambodia and Switzerland.
When it comes to South Korea’s exports to Britain, a no-deal Brexit is predicted to result in a decline of US$714 million, which is equivalent to 14 percent of South Korea’s total exports to Britain for 2018. The estimated decline is US$35.5 billion for the European Union, equivalent to 11 percent of the total exports from the European Union to Britain for 2018. The figures are US$2.4 billion and 24 percent for Turkey.
On the other hand, a no-deal Brexit is forecast to lead to a 17 percent, US$10.2 billion, increase in exports from China to Britain. The estimates are 38 percent and US$4.9 billion for Japan and 9 percent and US$5.34 billion for the United States. The other countries that can benefit from a no-deal Brexit include South Africa, India, Brazil, Russia, Vietnam, New Zealand, Canada, Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Argentina.
The UNCTAD explained that even a more orderly Brexit will pose serious concerns attributable to a change in terms of trade although a no-deal Brexit will immediately affect many developing countries’ exports. “Exports from third countries to Britain are likely to hinge on the new trade structure Britain will adopt in view of its relations with the countries currently enjoying the most favored nation treatment and special favors in the EU market,” it pointed out.