Grow Rate Slowing

South Korea’s export growth rate for the first half continued to increase although the growth rate edged down in June.
South Korea’s exports topped the US$50 billion mark for four months in a row in June, although the growth rate edged down.

South Korea’s monthly exports exceeded US$50 billion for four months in a row for the first time in history. Although its export growth rate edged down last month, the rate for the first half continued to increase. Still, a heavy reliance on semiconductor exports and sluggish exports from the automobile and shipbuilding sectors did not disappear.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy announced on July 1 that South Korea’s monthly exports totaled US$51.23 billion, down 0.089% from a year ago, last month. According to the ministry, the slight decline can be attributed to less business days and the US$7.37 billion-worth ship export contract concluded in June last year. It explained that last month’s figure is the fifth-highest in history in terms of export value in spite of the year-on-year decline.
 

“Last month was the first time the monthly exports exceeded US$50 billion for the fourth consecutive month and four times within one year,” the ministry added, continuing, “The daily average was US$2.38 billion, the highest since October last year.” It went on to say, “Although the export unit price edged down in June this year, an increase in export volume more than offset the decline, and the cumulative exports increased 6.6% and hit an all-time high of US$297.5 billion in the first half.”
 

Semiconductors, petrochemical products, petroleum products and computers showed double-digit export growth. Specifically, semiconductor exports, which totaled US$10.85 billion in May this year, reached a record high of US$11.16 billion with a year-on-year growth of 39% last month. This had to do with a stable memory chip price that led to an increase in exports continuing for the 21st consecutive month.
 

General machinery exports topped US$4 billion for the fourth consecutive month for the first time. Likewise, petrochemical and petroleum product exports topped US$4 billion and US$3 billion for seven and eight months in a row, respectively.

Experts point out though that the performance is not entirely optimistic. “It is based on a global economic recovery, a boom in the global semiconductor industry, rising international oil prices and so on rather than the competitiveness of South Korean companies themselves,” one of them mentioned, adding, “Few items contributed to the performance except for semiconductors and computers benefitting from the ongoing IT industry boom and petrochemical and petroleum products benefitting from rising oil prices.”
 

Besides, semiconductor exports are likely to fall in the second half. The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade (KIET) recently forecast that South Korea’s semiconductor export growth rate would fall from 42.5% to 15.9% from the first to second half of this year. Moreover, automobile exports posted a decline of 9.9% last month.

The ministry also explained that South Korea ranked seventh in the world in terms of exports for the first four months of this year, down one notch from a year earlier due to a strong euro, but its export growth was higher than the global average and those of major economies during the same period.

South Korea’s monthly imports added up to US$44.91 billion, up 10.7% from a year earlier. Its trade surplus totaled US$6.32 billion and it remained in the black for 77 months in a row.

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