Export Index

The Korea Eximbank forecasted that the leading index on exports in Q1 rose 5.4 percent year-on-year, marking the first increase in nine quarters since late 2014.
The Korea Eximbank forecasted that the leading index on exports in Q1 rose 5.4 percent year-on-year, marking the first increase in nine quarters since late 2014.

The Overseas Economic Research Institute of the Export-Import Bank of Korea (Korea Eximbank) forecasted that the country's exports in the first quarter will rise about 10 percent from the same period last year.

According to a report titled “2016 Q4 Export Performance Evaluations and 2017 Q1 Forecasts” published on Feb. 2 by the Korea Eximbank, the leading index on exports rose 5.4 percent year-on-year, marking the first increase in nine quarters since late 2014. In addition, exports in the first quarter this year will record double-digit growth with the base effect of low exports in the first quarter last year.

Export leading index can predict whether and how much exports will increase or decrease as the index considers all the factors that affect the nation’s exports, such as economic conditions, amount of raw materials imports, amount of orders by industry and exchange rates at major exporting countries. The variation in exports showed a 4.5 percent decrease in the second quarter, a 4.3 percent decrease in the third quarter and a 2.7 percent decrease in the fourth quarter, compared to the same period a year earlier.

An official from the Korea Eximbank said, “The advanced economies, including the U.S. and the euro zone, continue to recover and export prices are improving due to the increase in the unit cost of semiconductor and steel products. Exports in the fourth quarter last year showed the first increase in eight quarters and exports in the first quarter this year is expected to see double-digit growth. So, export seems to be turned around.”

He added, “However, the amount of export increases can be reduced owing to the possibility of rapid changes in export environments caused by the new U.S. government’s protectionism and continuous frustrated exports of some main items including ships.”

 

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