IHS Forecast for OLED TV Market Goes Down 32% by 2020

As the outlook for the OLED TV market, which is being developed by LG Electronics, has shown a downward trend this year, all eyes are now on its backdrop. Market researchers believe that a market research firm adjusted the earlier market forecast further downward cconsidering several variables, including Samsung’s withdrawal from the market and mass production capacity.

According to TV industry sources on June 22, TV market research firm IHS Inc. predicted in its report on the second quarter that the size of the OLED TV market would reach 830,000 units this year. Also, its annual OLED TV market forecast stood at 1.4 million units in 2017, 2.36 million in 2018, 4 million in 2019 and 5.8 million in 2020.

The figures are significantly lower than the previous forecasts made in the first quarter. IHS had earlier forecasts in the first quarter that the number of OLED TV shipments would be 870,000 units this year and 8.5 million in 2020. The new 2020 forecast was down 32 percent from 8.5 million units made three months before in the first quarter.

The company’s OLED TV market forecasts moved downward after the fourth quarter last year. As for the outlook for this year's OLED TV market, IHS said it would be 1.2 million six months ago, which was reduced 31 percent, or 370,000 units, to 830,000 units in the second quarter.

As IHS adjusted the OLED TV market outlook further downward this year, industry sources have a different interpretation of it. TV makers cite a lower yield rate than LCD as a reason for the trend. Some say the fact that Samsung Electronics, which focuses on quantum dot strategy, flatly announced that it would not take part in the OLED TV market is another factor.

However, others still see a positive prospect for the OLED TV market growth despite lower forecasts from the market research firm. In fact, IHS’ expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the OLED TV market from 2014 to 2020 reaches 106 percent. It means that the market will be doubled every year by 2020.

LG Electronics, the sole market leader in OLED TVs, sold 113,000 OLED TVs in the first three months this year, showing a threefold growth from a year earlier. Considering the great demand in the second half of the year, the company also expects to sell 900,000 units this year, three times higher than last year’s sales. This is why LG Electronics seems like they don’t care about the decrease in OLED TV sales.