Battery Tape Sales to Cell Makers Continue to Climb

The author is an analyst of NH Investment & Securities. He can be reached at neul.ha@nhqv.com. -- Ed.  

 

Despite several external factors, we believe that Tapex enjoyed sound 3Q22 shipments of rechargeable battery tape for use in EVs. But, its sales of battery tape for use in power tools were likely dampened by a slowdown in the global construction market. With the firm’s mid/long-term investment plans for its rechargeable battery tape facilities starting to unfold, uncertainties towards its earnings should dissipate gradually.

Lower TP to W100,000

Although maintaining a Buy rating, we lower our TP on Tapex by 9% to W100,000. We have downwardly adjusted our sales estimates for the electronic materials division to reflect the slowing growth potential of the power tool market. But, we have boosted our EBITDA estimate to reflect margin improvement thanks to leverage effects from increased tape production. However, for the calculation of the multiple for the electronic materials division, we have changed our list of peers from rechargeable battery material companies to laggard material (copper foil, separator, and electrolyte) players (2024F EV/EBITDA of 11.2x for battery material companies versus 8.5x for laggard material players), leading to a drop in estimated value of the division.

3Q22 preview: Power tool shipments slow, but EV shipments solid

On a consolidated basis, we now expect Tapex to post 3Q22 sales of W48.1bn (+17.6% y-y) and OP of W8.0bn (+23.9% y-y). Its sales of rechargeable battery tape likely totaled W23.9bn (+48.2% y-y). While the firm’s shipments to power tool customers were likely restrained by weak construction market conditions, its cylindrical battery sales to EV clients look to have remained brisk. Despite a likely q-q decline in power tool tape sales, we believe that EV tape shipments upped at the same pace as in the previous quarter, helping to defend overall earnings. Despite a shutdown at Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory (due to facility improvement work), Tapex’s battery tape sales to cell makers continue to climb each quarter. In addition, in its 3Q22 earnings call, Tesla announced a positive demand outlook, stating that 4Q22 auto demand will be very strong and projecting that its full-year production volume for 2022 will surge 50% y-y.

We forecast 4Q22 sales of W49.5bn (+11.4% y-y) and OP of W4.5bn (-7.7% y-y). With an improvement project for Tapex’s tape production line for rechargeable batteries announced in 1H22 to wrap up this quarter, higher production capacity should come gradually to be reflected in earnings. New facility expansion costs are expected to begin in November, and the firm’s 4Q22 figures will likely also include one-off expenses for employee incentive payments.

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