What Lies Ahead for Ruling and Opposition Parties after the By-election?

The result of the Seoul mayor by-election held on October 26 can be summarized as “Both the ruling Grand National Party and the biggest opposition Democratic Party failed to win over the public.” In other words, both may be on the verge of falling apart at the general election scheduled for April next year unless they reform themselves.

Seoul citizens were harsh to the ruling party in particular. Of the 48 local constituencies in the capital, the GNP’s candidate Na Gyeong-won prevailed in only seven over her independent counterpart Park Won-soon. It means that the ruling party, in Seoul, can expect that number of parliamentary seats at best at the general election next year on the assumption that nothing extraordinary happens before then. If the opposition parties come up with a single candidate, the GNP will be forced to see itself crumble. Under such circumstances, it is doing everything it can to find out how to win back the public’s favor.

The Democratic Party cannot stay content with the outcome either. According to exit polls conducted by the three major broadcasting companies of Korea, 36.9% of voters in Seoul are backing the GNP while the figure is just 22.7% for the Democratic Party. It signifies that the majority of voters are lukewarm about it though they would turn their back on the ruling candidate and opt for the only alternative in a one-on-one showdown. If running for the general election on its own now, the Democratic Party would most likely suffer a defeat. In fact, it has lost the most part of the recent elections in which it did not band together with the opposition alliance.

Therefore, the Democratic Party has to further solidify the bloc if it is to win the April election Still, that alone does not suffice. The minor parties it is intending to build ties with, i.e., the Democratic Labor, New Progressive and Participation parties, have a combined approval rating of just 7% according to surveys conducted by TV broadcasters. Arithmetically, there is no guarantee that the Democratic can catch up with the Grand National through the four-party consolidation. Therefore, it needs to mull over how to attract floating voters. A personnel reshuffle may be one of the most viable options.

GNP’s Efforts for Reform Hitting the Wall from the Outset

These days, a huge controversy is boiling up in the ruling party regarding measures to deal with the crushing by-election defeat.

While they do have their consensus about the necessity of an overall reformation, opinions are divided as to who between the party and the administration should spearhead such change. The confrontation has something to do with the subtle dynamics within the party. Some members are claiming that former representative Park Geun-hye should step up to freshen the party and the Presidential office. However, their voices are failing to stir a sensation, signaling that any such efforts will be bumpy. The former representative showed her stance against drastic solutions like the organization of an emergency committee immediately after the by-election. Rather, she has been attempting to induce some substantial changes while maintaining the current party leadership.

What is worse, at least for now, is that the ruling GNP is finding no trump card whatsoever to turn the tide. What it is currently encountering is a bleak situation in which the biggest party in Korea has no choice but to wait impatiently until its opponent makes a blunder.

Opposition Group Members Scram-bling for Leadership

In the meantime, the opposition bloc is already showing signs of internal strife. There is an unconfirmed rumor these days in the Democratic Party that the Innovation & Integration (I&I), a recently formed pan-opposition group, is demanding a co-representative position and 50% of the supreme council seats. In response, some party members are raising their voices for a central role in the coalition. These include Park Ju-seon, a supreme council member of the Democratic Party, running for its representative.

Kim Bu-gyeom, who is standing for the same office, criticized the I&I recently, saying, “The consolidation of opposition parties should not be the splitting of equity, etc. The Democratic Party should be the one to persuade opposition supporters so that they can agree with our cause, but it seems to me that those at the helm haven't clarified their stance regarding this issue of great importance.”

Meanwhile, Democratic Party representative Son Hak-gyu commented that such integration can only be on track when his party, the bloc and progressive parties and political forces participate with those labor and civil unions that have remained a step behind. He also condemned about the I&I, remarking, “The turf battle the bloc is trying to raise has no meaning at all and there is no doubt that this is not what people expect from us.” He went on to say, “Some are saying that my party is hesitating or trying to shun the consolidation, but it is not true,” adding, “The Democratic Party convention should be an integrated one. We will pursue it until the end of the day.”

However, things have been getting more and more favorable for the I&I since the by-election. The group, led by civic organizations and supporters of the late former President Roh Mu-hyun, is emerging fast as the leading agent, beyond a middleman, of opposition integration.

“The Ahn Cheol-soo syndrome and the election of Park Won-soon as the new mayor of Seoul imply that people are looking forward to something bigger than a united opposition front,” said I&I steering committee member Kim Gyeong-soo. He continued, “I believe what they want is sweeping reform and citizen politics, the two very elements that will ensure the support of the people in April 2012.”

With the situation as it is, the consolidation is likely to continue stage by stage between the Democratic Party and the I&I, excluding those progressive parties drawing the line at joining. Democratic Party former representative Jeong Se-gyun said, “As I see it, it is more effective and practical to join forces first with those agreeing on the goal than to stay obsessed with it if efforts are not paying off.” Both organizations are positive about that approach as well.

Situations Allowing No Prediction

In the meantime, lots of speculation is being made concerning future national political situations. Some are predicting that the Democratic Party will be at the center of the united front, while others are forecasting Ahn Cheol-soo will form his own party. There are numerous political variables and no one can tell anything for sure.

Nevertheless, one thing that is for sure is that people are expecting some new wave. They revealed their longing for it through the by-election, when those who had been uninterested in politics opted to join traditional opposition supporters.

Although not many things can be concluded as of yet about the new participants’ political orientations, it seems clear that they are innovation seekers furious at the Lee Myung-bak administration and the GNP. At the same time, however, they are finding no compelling reason to side with established opposition parties, either. It is unfair to categorize them in the ordinary pro-middle class and progressive group of voters.

Thus, the opposition bloc cannot rely upon the high voter turnout and avid support as of late. That group of voters can drop their interest in national politics or favor a new party and its figures at any time. What the opposition parties have to do now for next year is make themselves better instead of settling for the status quo of gloating at the spread of anti-government and anti-ruling party sentiment.